Law and campaign
Southern border, immigration and asylum
Pushbacks, unaccompanied minors and asylum, seen from a decade practicing law at the border. What the law says and what gets said in a campaign.
Alma Ruiz Political analyst and consultant
Political analysis from Spain's southern border
Spain's southern border, electoral data and campaigns. Former immigration and asylum lawyer in Ceuta.
Published in
Available for television, radio and print, in Spanish and English.
1999
Ceuta's vote, precinct by precinct, mapped since then
11
general elections measured bloc by bloc as a share of the electorate, 1993 to 2023
14
the age I first sat in front of a television camera
About
The law, the data and the campaign.
I live in Ceuta and analyze politics from here. I practiced as an immigration and asylum lawyer on Spain's southern border, so when the conversation turns to pushbacks, unaccompanied minors or asylum, I know what the law says and what gets said on the campaign trail.
I work with data. I have Ceuta's vote broken down precinct by precinct since 1999, I have measured the left and right blocs as a share of the electorate across the eleven general elections between 1993 and 2023, and I have rebuilt the weighting of Spain's public polling institute, the CIS, to see how much recalled vote really weighs.
I have worked in electoral consulting in Latin America and today I advise the Socialist Parliamentary Group in the Assembly of Ceuta. I have been in front of a camera since I was 14, when I started at Ceuta's public television station.
I have been involved in politics since I was 16. I lived in Romania for two years, from 2015 to 2017, and got to know its political culture up close. I have also spent a year in northern Italy and an Erasmus year in Lisbon.
Topics
What I talk about.
Data
Electoral data
Ceuta's vote precinct by precinct since 1999 and the left and right blocs as a share of the electorate in every general election from 1993 to 2023. Also how the CIS weights its polls and how much recalled vote matters.
Craft
Campaigns and strategy
Electoral consulting in Latin America and parliamentary advisory work in the Assembly of Ceuta, with the day-to-day of strategy and speechwriting.
Consulting
Political consulting
I work as a political consultant with parties, candidates and parliamentary groups. I bring to every engagement the electoral data, the craft of campaigns and the daily work inside a legislature.
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Electoral analysis
Precinct-level vote, how the blocs move and a critical reading of the polls, to know where an election is won and where it is lost.
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Strategy and messaging
Positioning, message and talking points. Preparation for debates, floor sessions and public appearances.
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Political communication
Media and social media monitoring, and press relations.
Articles
Latest pieces
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El voto huérfano de la vivienda
Housing brings together 1.2 million young voters close to the left who do not currently lean toward the Socialists, according to CIS microdata. They decide in the final week, and a loss moves them more than a promise.
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El espejismo de los doscientos escaños de PP y Vox
The gap between a united and a divided left could decide several seats on November 29. A province-by-province breakdown from polls and CIS microdata leaves the right-wing bloc closer to 190 seats than to 200.
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El coste electoral de equivocarse con Maricarmen
With her death, Maricarmen has gone from a case to an archetype, and she could mobilize the housing protest ahead of the November 29 election. A reading through Antigone: the role of Creon is vacant, and both major parties have earned a claim to it.
Background
From the law to analysis
Work
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Since August 2026
Advisor to the Socialist Parliamentary Group
Assembly of Ceuta
Strategy, speechwriting and preparation of the Group's floor sessions. Media and social media monitoring, and relations with the local press.
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2017 to September 2026
Lawyer
Own practice, Ceuta
Immigration, asylum, family law and administrative proceedings.
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Electoral consulting
Latin America
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Television and press
Ceuta and Granada
On Ceuta's public television (RTVCE) since the age of 14. Political debates in Granada, and local press and television in Ceuta.
Education
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In progress
B.A. in Political Science
University of Burgos
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2012–2013
Erasmus exchange
Faculty of Law, University of Lisbon
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Law degree
University of Granada